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Dr. Joel Howard Reynolds

6601 Chevigny St.
Anchorage, AK 99502
907.248.4776
SolutionsConsulting@ak.net

Statistical consulting for environmental sciences & natural resources.
15+ years of consulting, collaboration, review, and professional education.

pencil iconSampling and Monitoring Design pencil icon Advanced Statistical Modeling
pencil iconData Visualization  pencil iconModern Data Analysis (Bootstrap, Randomization Methods)
pencil icon Compositional Data Analysis of Repeated Measures and Dependent Data
pencil icon Professional Education pencil icon Statistical and Scientific Review

Recent Projects

  • Review of long-term environmental monitoring project for Prince William Sound Regional Citizens Advisory Council.
  • Protocol comparison methods and guidelines for stream habitat measurement (part of the Integrated Status and Effectiveness Monitoring Program, Bonneville Power Authority).
  • Review of sampling and monitoring designs for estimating soil carbon content for long-term carbon sequestration.
  • Power analyses for subsistence harvest surveys.
  • Statistical advising for various private statistical consulting firms.

Recent Clients

  • Braunstein Geological & Environmental Services, Anchorage, AK
  • Environmental Defense
  • Fore Statistical Consulting, Seattle, WA.
  • Terraqua Inc., Wauconda, WA.
  • TerraStat Consulting Group, Seattle, WA.
  • U. S. Fish & Wildlife Service, Migratory Bird Management

Professional Positions

1995 – Present Statistical Consultant, Solutions Statistical Consulting
2003 – Present Regional Refuge Biometrician, Division of Natural Resources, U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service (Alaska)
1999 – 2002 Biometrican, Gene Conservation Laboratory, Alaska Department of Fish and Game, Commercial Fisheries Division
1999 – Present Affiliate Faculty, Dept. of Statistics, University of Washington
1996 - 1999 Faculty, Dept. of Statistics, University of Washington
1996 - 1999 Consulting Statistician, Center for Human Development and Disabilities, University of Washington
1992 - 1993 Statistical Consultant, Center for Quantitative Science in Forestry, Fisheries and Wildlife, University of Washington

Education

University of Washington, Seattle 1996 Ph.D. Interdisciplinary program in Quantitative Ecology & Resource Management
University of California, Los Angeles 1989 M.S. Biomathematics
University of California, Los Angeles 1988 B.A. Mathematics (magna cum laude)

Professional Education Short-Courses

Design Refresher:  Fundamentals of Sampling & Monitoring Design (1 day course)

  • The Wildlife Society 13th Annual Conference, Anchorage, AK Sept. 2006.
  • U.S. FWS 3rd Regional Biologists Workshop, Homer, AK March 2006.

Regression Refresher (3 day course)

  • U.S. FWS biologists, Region 7, Fairbanks, Homer, Anchorage, Spring 2004.

Data Visualization (for the graphically impaired).  (½ day)

  • Alaska Chapter Meeting of the American Fisheries Society, Sitka, AK Nov. 2001.

Bootstrap Data Analysis:  Concepts and Applications. (½ day)

  • Alaska Chapter Meeting of the American Fisheries Society, Fairbanks, AK Nov 2000.

Modern Statistics and Exploratory Data Analysis. (½ day)

  • Finnish Graduate Program in Forestry, Joensu, Finland, July 1995.
Advising
  • Rie Komokoro, Ph. D. 2005. Dept. of Applied Mathematics, University of Washington. Topic: analysis of an evolutionary computation optimization algorithm for multi-criteria optimization.
  • Mary Beth Evans (College of Forestry); Master’s supervisory committee, 1996 - 1999.  Topic: snow bed dynamics in demonstration forest management stands.

Academic Service

  • Applied Examination Committee, Department of Statistics, UW 1996 - 1999.
  • Teaching Effectiveness Committee, Department of Statistics, UW 1996 - 1999.

Research:

Publications

Byrd, V. B., J. H. Reynolds, P. L. Flint.  In Review.  Persistence rates and detection probabilities of bird carcasses on beaches of Unalaska Island, Alaska following the wreck of the Selendang Ayu.

Murphy, K. A., J. H. Reynolds, J. M. Kolton.  In Review.  Does dNBR detect ecologically significant burn severity in boreal forests?  International Journal of Wildlife Fire.

Komuro, R., Reynolds, J. H., and Ford, E. D. In Review.  An elitist multi-objective evolutionary algorithm for use with binary-valued criteria.  Evolutionary Computation.

Komuro, R., Reynolds, J. H., and Ford, E. D. In Press.  Use of Pareto Frontiers to detect deficiences in a biological simulation model.  Proceedings of the IEEE Congress on Evolutionary Computation, CEC 2007,Singapore, Sept. 25-28, 2007.

Reynolds, J. H.  In Press.  Statistics for Carbon Sampling.  In Smith, GR, C. Li, J.H. Reynolds, BA McCarl, WA Parton, W Barbour, R Hammerschlag, and J Holtkamp, Quantifying Greenhouse Gas Emission Offsets Generated by Changing Land Management, Duke University Press, pp x–y.

Kroeker, R., Sackett, G., and J. H. Reynolds.  In Press.  Statistical methods for describing developmental milestones with censored data:  Effects of birth weight status and sex in neonatal pigtailed macaques.  American Journal of Primatology.

Reynolds, J. H., C. A. Woody, N. E. Gove, and L. F. Fair. 2007. Efficiently estimating salmon escapement uncertainty using systematically sampled data.  Pages 121-129 in C. A. Woody, editor.  Sockeye salmon ecology, evolution, and management.  American Fisheries Society, Symposium No. 54, Bethesda, Maryland.

Komuro, R., Reynolds, J. H., and Ford, E. D. 2007.  Using Multiobjective Evolutionary Algorithms to Assess Biological Simulation Models.  In S. Obayashi et al., Eds., EMO 2007: Proceedings of the Fourth International Conference on Evolutionary Multi-Criterion Optimization, Matsushima/Senda Japan, March 5-8, 2007.  Lecture Notes in Computer Science 4403, Springer-Verlag, Berlin, pp 560-574.

Komuro, R., Ford, E. D., and Reynolds, J. H. 2006.  The use of multi-criteria assessment in developing a process model.  Ecological Modelling, 197: 320-330.

Renner, H. M., M. Renner, J. H. Reynolds, A. M. A. Harding, I. L. Jones, D. B. Irons, G. V. Byrd.  2006.  Colony mapping:  a new technique for monitoring crevice-nesting seabirds.  The Condor 108:424-435. 

Reynolds, J. H., and E. D. Ford.  2005.  Improving competition representation in theoretical models of self-thinning:  a critical review.  Journal of Ecology, 93:362-372.

Reynolds, J. H., and D. Golinelli.  2005.  Multi-criteria inference for process models: structural and parametric inference for a stochastic model of feline hematopoiesis.  2004 Proceedings of the American Statistical Association, Section on Statistics & the Environment [cd-rom], Alexandria, VA:  American Statistical Association.

Reynolds, J. H., and W. D. Templin. 2004.  Detecting Specific Populations in Mixtures.  Proceedings of the 20th Lowell Wakefield Fisheries Symposium: Genetics of Subpolar Fish and Invertebrates. Environmental Biology of Fishes, 69:233-243.

Olsen, J. B., C. Habicht, J. Reynolds, and J. Seeb.  2004.  Moderate and highly polymorphic microsatellites provide discordant estimates of population divergence in sockeye salmon, Oncorhynchus nerka.  Proceedings of the 20th Lowell Wakefield Fisheries Symposium: Genetics of Subpolar Fish and Invertebrates. Environmental Biology of Fishes, 69:261-273.

Reynolds, J. H., and W. D. Templin.  2004.  Comparing Mixture Estimates by Parametric Bootstrapping Likelihood Ratios.  Journal of Agricultural, Biological, and Environmental Statistics, 9(1):57-74.

Reynolds, J. H. 2003.  Comparing Apples with Oxen: The Origins of the Alphabet.  The Armchair Classicist, 6(10):12–15.

Reynolds, J. H., and W. D. Templin. 2003.  Testing Component Contribution in Finite Discrete Mixtures: Population Detection in Mixed Stock Fisheries.  2002 Proceedings of the American Statistical Association, Section on Statistics & the Environment [cd-rom], Alexandria, VA:  American Statistical Assocition: 2873–2878.

Thompson, M. L., J. H. Reynolds, L. Cox, P. Guttorp, P. Sampson. 2001. A Review of Statistical Adjustment of Ozone for Meteorological Variables. Atmospheric Environment 35(3):617-630.

Debevec, E. M. , R. B. Gates, M. Masuda, J. Pella, J. Reynolds, L. W. Seeb.  2000. SPAM (Version 3.2):  Statistics Program for Analyzing Mixtures. Journal of Heredity 91(6):509-510.

Ishii, H., J. H. Reynolds, E. D. Ford, D. C. Shaw. 2000. Height growth and vertical development of an old-growth Pseudotsuga-Tsuga forest in southwestern Washington State, U.S.A. Canadian Journal of Forest Research, 30(1):17–24.

Reynolds, J. H.  2000.  Pythagoras of Samos and the beginning of Greek Mathematics.  The Armchair Classicist, newsletter of the Northwest Society for Classical Studies March 2000, 3(3):2-4.

Woody, C. A., J. Olsen, J. Reynolds, P. Bentzen. 2000. Temporal variation in genotypic and phenotypic traits of two sockeye salmon populations. Transactions of the American Fisheries Society 129:1031-1043.

Reynolds, Joel H., E. David Ford. 1999. Multi-Criteria assessment of ecological process models. Ecology. 80(2):538–553.

Reynolds, Joel H. 1998. Causal Systems in Ecology. Letter in reply to Science's Compass essay. Science, 15 May, 280:988-989.

Reynolds, Joel H., Emily Silverman. 1997. Review of Albert Madansky’s “Prescriptions for Working Statisticians”. Bulletin of the Ecological Society of America. 78(3):217.

North, Malcolm, Joel H. Reynolds. 1996. Microhabitat analysis using radio telemetry locations and polytomous logistic regression. Journal of Wildlife Management 60(3):639-653.

Concannon, Patric, Uma Malhotrac, Patrick Charmley, Joel Reynolds, Kenneth Lange, and Richard Gatti. 1990. The ataxia-telangiectasia gene (ATA) on Chromosome 11 is distinct from the ETS-1 gene. Am. J. Hum. Genet. 46(4):789-794.

Reports

Keim, M., J. H. Reynolds, D. Zweifelhofer? 2005.  seabirds.

Reynolds. STEI report

Reynolds and Steele-Feldman, Eider-Survive

Steele-Feldman, A., and J. H. Reynolds.  2007.  User’s guide for Steller’s eider band-recapture database, Izembek National Wildlife Refuge.  Alaska Refuges Report Series no. 07-003.

Walsh, P., J. H. Reynolds, G. Collins, B. Russell, M. Winfree, J. Denton.  2006.  Brown bear population density on Togiak National Wildlife Refuge and BLM Goodnews Block, southwest Alaska.  U. S. Fish and Wildlife Service, Togiak National Wildlife Refuge, Dillingham, AK.

Renner, H. M., J. H. Reynolds.  2006.  Mapping distribution and relative density of nesting least and creasted auklets at Segula Island, Alaska, May-June 2006.  U. S. Fish and Wildlife Service, Alaska Maritime National Wildlife Refuge, Homer, AK.

Byrd, G. V., J. H. Reynolds, P. L. Flint.  2006b.  Persistence rates of bird carcasses on beaches of Unalaska Island, Alaska, following the wreck of the M/V Selendang Ayu.  U. S. Fish and Wildlife Service, Alaska Maritime National Wildlife Refuge, Homer, AK.

Byrd, G. V., J. H. Reynolds, P. L. Flint.  2006a.  Detection probabilities for bird carcasses on beaches of Unalaska Island, Alaska, following the wreck of the M/V Selendang Ayu.  U. S. Fish and Wildlife Service, Alaska Maritime National Wildlife Refuge, Homer, AK.

Byrd, G. V., J. H. Reynolds, G. Ford, J. Piatt, P. L. Flint.  2005.  Beached animal surveys near the wreck of the M/V Selendang Ayu on Unalaska Islanda, Alaska:  a pre-assessment plan.  U. S. Fish and Wildlife Service, Alaska Maritime National Wildlife Refuge, Homer, AK.

Fischbach, A. S., J. H. Reynolds.  2005.  Brown bear use of the proposed Kodiak National Wildlife Refuge O’Malley bear viewing site: analysis of 1991, 1992, 1993, 1994, and 2003 study year observations.  Kodiak National Wildlife Refuge report. URL?

Reynolds, J. H. 2001. SPAM (Statistics Program for Analyzing Mixtures) Version 3.5: User’s Guide Addendum.  Addendum to Special Publication No. 15, Alaska Dept. of Fish and Game, Division of Commercial Fisheries, Gene Conservation Laboratory, 333 Raspberry Road, Anchorage, AK 99518. 63 pages. Available at http://www.cf.adfg.state.ak.us/geninfo/research/genetics/Software/SpamPage.htm

SPAM (Statistics Program for Analyzing Mixtures) Version 3.2: User’s Guide. Special Publication No. 15, Alaska Department of Fish and Game, Division of Commercial Fisheries Gene Conservation Laboratory, 333 Raspberry Road, Anchorage, AK 99518.

Reynolds, JH. D. Caccia, P. D. Sampson, P. Guttorp. 1999. Meteorological Adjustment of Chicago, Illinois, Regional Surface Ozone Observations with investigation of Trends. NRCSE Technical Report NRCSE-TRS number 25. http://www.nrcse.washington.edu/research/reports/reports.asp

Reynolds, Joel H., B. Das, P. D. Sampson, P. Guttorp. 1998. Meteorological Adjustment of Western Washington and Nortwest Oregon Surface ozone Observations with investigation of Trends. NRCSE Technical Report NRCSE-TRS No. 15 (http://www.stat.washington.edu/NRCSE/resource/papers.html).

Selected Presentations

Modeling molting Steller’s Eiders using multi-state mark recapture (with movement memory) – miracle or mathematical mirage? 

  • Annual Conference of the Alaska Chapter of the American Statistical Association, 26 July 2007, Anchorage, AK.

A graphic user interface for fitting multi-state mark recapture models with movement memory:  Estimating adult survivorship of Steller’s eiders. w/ A. Steele-Feldman, K. Sowl. 

  • Poster, The Wildlife Society annual conference, Anchorage, AK, 24-27 September 2006.

Brown bear population density estimation using double-observer aerial transect surveys: Southwest Alaska survey estimates and lessons learned.. w/ P. Walsh, G. H. Collins, B. Russell, M. M. Winfree, J. W. Denton. 

  • Poster, The Wildlife Society annual conference, Anchorage, AK, 24-27 September 2006.

Patch occupancy models and sequential sampling. 

  • Alaska Chapter of the American Statistical Association, Juneau, AK, 18-21 July 2006.

Applying national burn severity mapping methodology to National Wildlife Refuge lands in Alaska: will dnbr work?  w/ Karen Murphy. 

  • Poster, Fire Behavior and Fuels Conference, Portland, OR, May 2006.

Population Trends of Sea Ducks Wintering in Four Bays of Kodiak Island, Alaska – Analysis of Twenty Year Study. 

  • Denny Zwiefelhofer, Douglas J. Forsell, Mike Keim, and Joel Reynolds.  Pacific Seabird Group Meetings, February, 2006.

Population Trends of Sea Ducks Wintering in Four Bays of Kodiak Island, Alaska – Analysis of Twenty Year Study. 

  • Denny Zwiefelhofer, Douglas J. Forsell, Mike Keim, and Joel Reynolds.  Joint Seaduck Meetings, November, 2005.

Efficiently Estimating Escapement uncertainty from systematic samples.  

  • w/ C. A. Woody, N. E. Gove, L. F. Fair. Poster, American Fisheries Society annual meeting, Anchorage, AK, 12-15 September 2005.

Structural inference for stochastic process models: An example using feline hematopoeisis.  w/ Daniela Golinelli. 

  • Western North American Regional meeting of the Biometrics Society, Fairbanks, AK, 22-24 June 2005.

Multi-criteria inference for process models: Structural and parametric inference for a stochastic model of feline hematopoeisis. 

  • w/ Daniela Golinelli.  Joint Statistical Meetings, Toronto, Canada, 8 – 12 July 2004.

Handling residual dependence in bear attendance data from Kodiak NWR. 

  • Alaska Chapter of the American Statistical Association annual meeting, Kodiak, AK, 23-15 July 2004.

Analyzing Compositional Data: Challenges & Approaches. 

  • Invited Seminar, Dept. of Mathematics, Computer Science, and Statistics, University of Alaska, Fairbanks, 4 Dec 2003.

Challenges for Monitoring Species and Ecosystems in Alaska’s National Wildlife Refuges (and some potential solutions). 

  • Invited Seminar, NOAA/NMFS Northwest Fisheries Science Center and the Center for Water and Watershed Studies, Seattle, WA, 24 April 2003.

Alleles, Fins, Nets, and Dice: Discrete Mixture Problems in Managing Interception Fisheries. 

  • Invited Seminar, Interdisciplinary Graduate Degree Program in Quantitative Ecology and Resource Management, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, 23 April 2003.

Issues of Scale in Sampling Design. 

  • Invited Seminar, US FWS Region 7 Refuge Biologists Conference, Cooper Landing, AK, 7-11 April 2003.

Polymorphism, Precision, and Power: Statistical Issues in Genetic Marker Selection. 

  • Alaska Chapter of the American Fisheries Society annual meeting, Girdwood, AK, 22-24 October, 2002.

Detecting ‘rare’ populations in mixtures. 

  • Alaska Chapter of the American Statistical Association annual meeting, Chena Hot Springs, Ak. 10-12 July, 2002.
  • 20th Lowell Wakefield Fisheries Symposium: Genetics of Subpolar Fishes and Invertebrates. Juneau, AK, 31 May 2002.
  • Joint Statistical Meetings. New York City, NY, 13 August 2002.

Multiple Output Methods of Inference for Simulation Models. 

  • Invited seminar, Complexity Working Group, University of Alaska Anchorage, 8 March 2002.

Microsattelites, mixed stock analysis, and rare alleles. 

  • Alaska Chapter meeting of the American Fisheries Society, Sitka, AK., 13-15 Nov., 2001.   Coastwide Salmonid Genetics Workshop, Bodega, CA. 25 – 28 Oct., 2001.

Mixed stock analysis: current methods and open problems.

  • Invited seminar, Dept. of Statistics, University of Alaska Fairbanks, 27 Sept., 2001.

Multiple Output Methods of Inference for Simulation Models. 

  • Invited Plenary Speaker, AAAS Arctic Science Conference, Anchorage, AK.  12 – 15 September, 2001.  Cancelled due to terrorist attack.

Testing Mixture Equality using Monte Carlo Simulation and Likelihood Ratios (Poster). 

  • Recent Developments in Mixture Modelling, Hamburg, Germany. 23 – 28 July, 2001.

Reducing Bias in Conditional Mixed Stock Analyses.

  • American Statistical Association Alaska Chapter Meeting, Anchorage, AK. 28 June., 2001.

Comparing Mixture Estimates using Monte Carlo Likelihood Ratios.

  • American Fisheries Society Alaska Chapter Meeting, Fairbanks, AK. 14 – 16 Nov., 2000.
  • American Statistical Association Alaska Chapter Meeting, Kodiak, AK. 20 – 22 Aug., 2000.

Assessing Ecological Process Models using Multiple Criteria.

  • Brown Bag Seminar Series, Biological Resources Division, USGS. Anchorage, AK., 2 Feb. 2000.

Assessing Model Structure using the Pareto Optimal Model Assessment Cycle (POMAC).

  • Invited presentation at the Quality Assurance in Environmental Modeling Workshop, sponsored by EPA and NRCSE. Seattle, WA., 7 – 10 Sept. 1999.

Resampling for Repeated Measures Analyses.

  • Invited presentation to the Developmental Psychology Working Group, Department of Psychology, University of Washington, 3 June, 1999.

Meteorological Adjustment of Surface Ozone: A comparison of Chicago Region Analyses.

  • Invited presentation at the 1999 EPA Conference on Environmental Statistics and Information: EPA's Vision for the 21st Century. Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, 10 - 13 May, 1999.

Revolutionary Ideas: Using Natural Selection to solve complex optimization problems.

  • Invited seminar, Gene Conservation Laboratory, Division of Commercial Fisheries Management, Alaska Department of Fish and Game. Anchorage, Alaska, 22 April, 1999.

Multi-Criteria Inference for Mechanistic Models.

  • Invited seminar, NOAA/HAZMAT Division. Seattle, Washington, 5 November, 1998.

Assessing Ecological Process Models using the Pareto Optimal Model Assessment Cycle.

  • VII International Congress of Ecology (INTECOL). Florence, Italy, 25 July, 1998.

Assessing a Stochastic Process model via Pareto Optimality.

  • Invited seminar, National Research Center for Statistics and the Environment, 24 Feb. 1998. (http://nrcse-svr.stat.washington.edu/seminars/nrcse-video.htm)

Adjusting Surface Ozone for Meteorology and Emissions prior to the Investigation of Time Trends.

  • Invited talk at the Cascadia Tropospheric Ozone Peer Review Symposium, University of Washington, Sept. 9, 1997.

Self-Thinning models: a critique of their canopy competition process representation.

  • Poster presented at the 1997 Conference of the Ecological Society of America, Albuquerque, NM.

How good is your process model?

  • Oral presentation at the 1995 Conference of the Ecological Society of America, Snowbird, Utah.

Multi-Criteria Assessment of Ecological Process Models using Pareto Optimization.

  • Invited seminar in “The Uncertainty Forum”, Center for Environmental Science, Lancaster University, U.K. 6/16/95.

So we built a model from our theory; now what?

  • Seminar presented at Harvard Forest, 1/27/95
  • Dartmouth University Department of Biology, 1/30/95.

Assessing Ecological Process Models using Pareto Optimality.

  • Seminar presented at Woods Hole Marine Biology Laboratory, 1/26/95.

Assessing Ecological Process Models using Pareto Optimality.

  • Talk presented at the 1994 Pacific Ecology Conference, Bamfield Marine Station, B. C., Canada, 3/4/94.

Coordination/Chair of Conferences or Sessions

Co-organizer, First North American Regional Meeting of The International Environmetrics Society (TIES), Seattle, WA., 19-21 June 2007.

Practical Issues in Resampling, Invited Symposium presented by the Environmental Statistics Section of the American Statistical Association, Joint Statistical Meetings, Toronto, Canada, 10 August 2004.

Math of the North session, Pacific Northwest Section meeting of the Mathematical Association of America, University of Alaska Anchorage, 25 May 2004.

Alaska Chapter of the American Statistical Association Annual Meeting, Motherlode Lodge, Hatcher Pass, AK, June 2-5, 2003.  Prof. Di Cook, guest lecturer.

Reviewer For

Alaska Fisheries Research Bulletin, Annals of Botany, Canadian Journal of Fisheries and Aquatic Science, Ecology, Ecological Modelling, Environmental and Ecological Statistics, International Statistical Review, Journal of Applied Ecology, Journal of Ecology, Journal of Wildlife Management, Oikos, Transactions of the American Fisheries Society, Tree Physiology, USGS-BRD, USF&WS, Wiley & Sons (statistics book proposals).

Society Membership, Professional Service, and Honors

Member:

American Fisheries Society
American Statistical Association
Ecological Society of America 
International Biometric Society
International Society for Evolutionary Computation
Phi Beta Kappa
The International Environmetrics Society
The Wildlife Society
 
Dr. Carol Ann Woody and Associates
Fisheries Research and Consulting
carolw@alaskalife.net
907-248-4776
cell 907-242-3496